LOCALISTAZTHE MOVEMENT

A LOCALIST INVESTIGATION / 001

You can’t measure prosperity with a pair of scissors.

Before your town celebrates its next big-box store, it deserves to know what the deal will cost and who will benefit.

Here’s what published research and public records tell us.

Check the claims About the documentary

AN ARIZONA PERSPECTIVE ON A NATIONAL QUESTION

PUBLIC MONEY DESERVES A FULL ACCOUNTING.

01 / THE MYTHS, DEBUNKED

What the sales pitch leaves out

Three claims worth checking before public money is committed.

MYTH 01 / TAX BREAKS

“Without tax breaks, they won’t come.”

THE REALITY

Most recipients would make a similar decision anyway.

AT LEAST75%

A research review estimates at least 75% of recipients would make a similar decision without typical business incentives.

National review of 30 studies · 2018

Source: Upjohn Institute
Read the study’s limits

The review estimates that typical incentives change 2–25% of recipients’ location, expansion, or retention decisions. At least 75% is the complement of the upper estimate.

This covers business incentives across industries. It does not establish whether a specific Cabela’s, Buc-ee’s, or other retailer needed its particular deal.

MYTH 02 / NEW MONEY

“All those sales mean new money for us.”

THE REALITY

Some spending moves from the stores already here.

NEARBY SUPERMARKET SALES−16%

A study found that a new Walmart Supercenter cut existing supermarkets’ revenue by 16% within one mile.

U.S. supermarket data, 2001–2011 · Study: 2020

Source: American Economic Association
Read the study’s limits

The effect declined quickly with distance. Existing supermarkets included chains, so this is not an estimate specifically for independent businesses.

This measures lost sales, not store closures or the region’s total wealth. New visitor spending can also be a real benefit. The point is that a new store’s sales are not automatically all additional.

MYTH 03 / PUBLIC COST

“This project will pay for itself.”

THE REALITY

City funds can end up covering the shortfall.

FROM THE CITY’S GENERAL FUND$13.95M

Independence, Missouri, used $13.95 million to help pay debt on a Bass Pro-anchored development when project revenue fell short.

Payments: 2011–2017 · Financing later restructured

Source: City financial disclosure, A-16
What the city’s records show

This concerns the whole Crackerneck Creek development, not a payment of that sum to Bass Pro or proof the retailer itself lost money.

The city’s 2021 disclosure said those contributions had not been required since 2017 after restructuring. It also disclosed future financing risks. This is a historical example, not a claim about current payments.

AND ABOUT THOSE JOBS

“Every hire is an extra local job.”

THE REALITY

The hiring announcement leaves out jobs lost elsewhere.

To know whether local employment grew, count gains and losses across the local economy.

Why there’s no single number for the jobs effect

Two influential historical Walmart studies disagree: Basker (2005) estimated about 50 additional county retail jobs after five years; Neumark and colleagues (2008) estimated about 150 fewer than would otherwise have existed.

These are different studies and methods, not a statistical range. Neither number predicts the impact of Cabela’s or Buc-ee’s.

Basker’s study ↗ · Neumark and colleagues’ study ↗

02 / FOLLOW THE MONEY

How a purchase travels through the local economy

A shop’s choice of suppliers helps decide how far a purchase travels through the local economy.

  1. 01 / YOUR PURCHASE

    The shop pays its bills

    You buy from a neighborhood shop. Part of the sale pays wages, suppliers, and the owner.

  2. 02 / THE NEXT PAYMENT

    Its suppliers get business

    A local accountant, printer, or repair company gets work when the shop buys those services nearby.

  3. 03 / THE NEXT PURCHASE

    Their workers spend their wages

    Those workers and owners can spend part of their income on groceries, childcare, and home repairs.

Illustrative spending path, not a measured dollar trail. Both chains and independents pay local workers and buy goods from elsewhere. Research context [9]

AN ARIZONA EXAMPLE

What an office-supply order can do for Arizona

In a historical comparison, Civic Economics estimated that more of each sales dollar circulated locally at Wist than at OfficeMax Contract. Wist’s management, sales, warehouse, and delivery operations in Tempe help explain the difference.

Read the study and its limits

ESTIMATED LOCAL RECIRCULATION
PER $100 OF REVENUE · 2011 DATA

Wist Office Products$33.70
OfficeMax Contract$12.90

Historical comparison reported in 2018. Wist funded the research. These are local recirculation estimates, not net wealth gains or percentages for every business. [10]

03 / WHO BENEFITS? · SIDNEY, NEBRASKA

Who came out ahead when Cabela’s was sold?

Shareholders received cash when Bass Pro bought Cabela’s in 2017. In Sidney, Nebraska, the loss of headquarters jobs left other businesses feeling the effects.

The slowdown reached the neighborhood bar

At Stewie’s, a bar frequented by Cabela’s workers, the owner told NPR that residents were holding back on spending. Business had slowed, and he had put the bar up for sale. [14]

What the documents say, and what happened next

Cabela’s proxy records that Bass Pro rejected proposed contractual protections for post-merger operations in Sidney during the 2016 negotiations. The cash price was subsequently revised before closing. [13]

The six-year retrospective also describes recovery: former employees founded businesses, and new residents helped the town adapt. Cabela’s had brought real benefits before the sale. This case concerns a headquarters merger, not a new store opening. [12]

Some residents also owned shares. The purchase price is proceeds, not a measure of investment profit, and the job estimate is reported history, not a causal estimate of every local loss. These figures show different outcomes; they do not establish the buyer’s return or a complete lifetime balance sheet.

Judging the deal means accounting for workers, nearby businesses, and public costs as well as shareholder proceeds.

04 / THE PUBLIC DEALS

Inside two publicly backed retail deals

The agreements and financial records show what was offered and where public money was spent.

CASE FILE 01GLENDALE, AZ
UP TO$10M

in bond-funded assistance
under a 2005 agreement

ON THE RECORD
CABELA’S / AGREEMENT TERMS

CABELA’S IN GLENDALE

What Glendale offered to land Cabela’s

Cabela’s told the SEC that its Glendale agreement provided up to $10 million in bond proceeds for land and site work. In return, it committed to a 165,000-square-foot store, at least 375 full- and part-time jobs, and 20 years of operation. [1]

WHAT THIS ESTABLISHES

A public deal with operating and employment obligations. Neither the assistance cap nor the job requirement proves the net result for Glendale.

What the agreement does, and doesn’t, tell us

Early closure or default could trigger a requirement to retire related bonds. The deal had protections as well as assistance.

Still to verify: actual public payments, compliance, wages, visitor spending, and effects on other stores. We have not established a causal link to local business closures.

The $10 million is a maximum, not a verified payout or the entire public package. The 375 jobs are a contractual minimum, not a measured net gain.

WHO BENEFITED MOST?

The agreement offered assistance to Cabela’s and promised jobs and operations to Glendale. The record here is not enough to rank their realized gains.

Open the company’s filing
CASE FILE 02INDEPENDENCE, MO
FROM THE GENERAL FUND$13.95M

to support project debt payments
during 2011–2017

A PUBLIC BILL
BASS PRO-ANCHORED CRACKERNECK CREEK

CRACKERNECK CREEK, MISSOURI

The shortfall became a city expense

Independence disclosed that it used $13,951,364 from its general fund to help pay debt on the Bass Pro-anchored Crackerneck Creek development during 2011–2017. Utility and sales-tax funds also contributed. [2]

WHAT THIS ESTABLISHES

A documented public cost when a retail development’s revenues could not cover its debt. This concerns the whole development, not a payment of that amount to Bass Pro.

What happened after the shortfall?

The city’s 2021 disclosure said restructuring had eliminated the need for those contributions since 2017. It still anticipated project revenue would not cover all future debt service and identified other revenue sources. [2]

State finance-board minutes also record slower development than projected and a 2021 refinancing intended to align debt service with revenue. [3]

This is a historical accounting, not a claim about 2026 payments or proof that the retailer itself was unprofitable.

WHO CARRIED THE SHORTFALL?

City funds supported the development’s debt payments. That establishes a public financing burden, not the retailer’s profit or the project’s full net benefit.

Read the city’s disclosure

Glendale’s agreement records what each side committed to, while Independence’s financial disclosures show a cost the city actually incurred. Neither is a complete measure of the community’s gains and losses.

05 / A BETTER STANDARD

Residents deserve a return on public money

Public money should help build an economy that residents can depend on. That means weighing lasting jobs and local ownership alongside shopper savings and the full cost to the town.

  1. 01

    Show whether the town comes out ahead

    Include jobs, earnings, and new spending from visitors. Account for losses at existing businesses and savings for shoppers.

  2. 02

    Publish the terms before the vote

    Disclose tax breaks, infrastructure costs, repayment risks, and enforceable commitments before asking residents to support a deal.

  3. 03

    Consider what else the money could do

    Compare the proposal with support for local entrepreneurs, shared infrastructure, and business services.

  4. 04

    Make follow-through part of the deal

    Publish annual results, compare them with a credible alternative, and enforce repayment terms when commitments are missed.

06 / THE STORY WE WANT TO TELL

The story gets interesting after the cameras leave.

After the Ribbon is a proposed documentary about what happens to a town once the grand-opening excitement wears off.

We’d follow shoppers, workers, local business owners, and officials as a retail deal becomes part of everyday life. Their experiences, tested against the records, would show who gained, who absorbed the costs, and what the town might have done differently.

Read the documentary treatment

Act I: A town lands a name

Why does getting a national brand feel like a measure of a town’s success? Start with the excitement and the promises that made the deal possible.

Act II: What the town agreed to

Follow one agreement line by line. Compare the public forecast with actual costs, local payroll, visitor origins, and the businesses already there.

Act III: Years later

Return years later. Explore who gained, who lost, and what another development strategy might have built.

The reporting standard

Secure participant access, request original records, use independent economic review, and invite substantive responses from retailers and officials. Follow the evidence even when it complicates the premise.

Working concept only. No production, interview, or participation commitments are implied. Buc-ee’s in Goodyear is a potential reporting lead, not an established case of subsidized harm.

Download the concept

07 / AT THE NEXT COUNCIL MEETING

Put these questions on the agenda.

Ask what the deal will actually do for the people who live here. These five questions give you somewhere to start.

Download a copy ↓

  1. What would happen here without the subsidy?
  2. How many net local jobs, at what wages and hours?
  3. How much spending is new to the region, rather than shifted from nearby businesses?
  4. What is the full public cost, and who pays if revenue falls short?
  5. When will actual results be published, and what happens if promises are missed?

THE EVIDENCE LIBRARY

Read the records behind the argument

Research reviewed October 19, 2026.

The source notes explain what each record supports and where its limits lie. Historical findings help us ask better questions; they aren’t forecasts for every new store. Download the research notes ↗

What would make a deal worth backing?

A deal deserves credit when it produces better jobs, new regional spending, and lasting public benefits after costs. Our position should be tested against those results, including evidence that challenges it.

The public records here do not establish that Cabela’s caused nearby businesses to close. No Goodyear Buc-ee’s subsidy or net local impact has been established in this edition. Current liabilities and current store performance require further reporting.